According to a classification system of International monetary fund we can divide economic crisis to currency crisis, banking crisis, systemic financial crisis, debt crisis. From among these, in words of Jeffrey Frankel, “we define a currency crash as a depreciation of the nominal exchange rate of at least 25 per cent that is also at least a 10 per cent increase in the rate of nominal depreciation”  This crisis is big problem itself because it makes trade condition worse and bring many negative effects to economy of the inside and outside of the country. Not only that but also currency crisis can occasion financial crisis. East Asia’s crisis in 1997 is the case of financial crises which is caused by currency crisis. So for the sake of prevent financial crisis we should know about currency crisis model.
Before 70’s there were also explain model about currency crisis. But krugman’s model realized the theorical condition of when fixed exchange rate system is collapsed and offered basic paradigm of currency crisis model. So we can define it as a first generation model. In first generation models, it thought economy fundamental’s worse is the origin of currency crisis. Fundamental’s worse example is low growth, insufficiency of foreign currency, budget deficit. More exactly, unsustainable money financed fiscal deficits lead to a persistent loss of international reserves and ultimately ignites a currency crash , because people try to sell domestic currency to buy foreign currency. So far as, financial obligations that caused by national bonds issuing is the speculative attack’s root. On the other hand, first generation model’s meaning is government policy need consistency to control risk of currency crisis possibility. It means fixed exchange rate system can’t stainable because that policy try to keep exchange rate (domestic currency’s value) with induce inflation (domestic currency value’s fall) by issuing national dept and it is not consistency policy. And it will be controlled by ‘invisible hand”. This model has significance that it can explain “middle-south America’s currency crisis repetition at beginning of 1980.
But as obstfeld said, we should argue that one cannot adequately understand recent European currency experience in terms of krugman’s model . From 1992 to 1993, European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) countries suffered fatal currency crisis. Even they had compact and stable fundamental condition. To put it more concretely, in spite of they could obtain funds easily from global finance market and even these countries maintain stability of inflation level crisis happened. So obstfeld produced ‘self-fulfilling crisis model’ which can call “second generation model” for explain European Monetary System Crisis, which could not explained by First Generation Model.
At first generation model, speculation was just accelerator for crisis which will happen sometime or another. But at second generation model suggested a potential for crises that need not have occurred, but that do occur because market participants expect them to.  In other words, expectation about government’s policy that government will devaluate domestic currency induce crisis because they sale currency first. We can imagine this is big sized case of “bank run”. So this model indicated speculation can make collapse of currency market and this is the reason why this model is ‘self-fulfilling crisis model”. In addition, second generation model indicates the situation of multiple equilibrium which means foreign exchange market’s equilibrium point when occurs collapse of market is not only one and it can have many point and situation that can cause collapse and it determined by strength of market expectation.
However it doesn’t mean the second generation model ignores ‘fundamental base’. Because new second model changed there’s theory to give weight to ‘fundamental base’. This is “Escape clause model”. More exactly, it will means currency crisis’s reason will be various collate of fundamental fluent and market expectation’s strength.
But despite of development of first generation model, second generation model and new second generation model, we can encounter with currency crisis that can’t explain by these old models. Mexico and Asia’s crisis is one of these cases. They didn’t have clearness weakness fundamental base as like dept or inflation. So it cannot explain by first generation model. Moreover, in this case government’s devaluation led recession, not an expansion. So it has problem to explain by second generation model.
So currency crisis model which is focused on reason of recession, especially foreign currency debt is third generation model. With third generation in Asia’s crisis, to help private company’s foreign loan, governments issued national bonds to prepare subsidy. But it made unexpected happening, value falling of domestic currency and exchange ratio rise. So even same amount in foreign currency, debt became huge value in domestic currency. So government should issue more bonds to solve loan. And it made vicious circle. Finally, government’s foreign currency reserve be gone while try to keep monetary exchange rate even it is going down. And Mexico’s case is almost same except someone who is in debt was government.
But interesting point is, some economist suggest that we can explain Mexico and Asia’s currency crisis by first generation model or second generation model. It will have same meaning with what ‘escape clause model’ implies; “All currency crisis will have at least fundamental basic element and ‘self-fulfilling fact’ .surely and so on. And not only these three model which explained at this essay there are also many kinds of model for explain various types of currency crisis. For example, there are “moral hazard model”, “financial panic model”, “boom-bust cycle model” etc. I think existence of various types of explain model means there are lots of source for currency crisis. It can be mixed reason also.
Also there will be currency crisis that cannot explain by existing model, because it caused by reason that we could not think or the reason is totally new one. But on the other hand, we should think about fundamental fact and market expectation which is basic fact of currency crisis. With this process, currency crisis model will develop continue.
The Telecommunication Sector Digi Economics Essay
The market organization is in the way in which a market is planned, derived from mainly on the quantity of firms in the business. The four essential market organization forms are perfect competition, monopoly, monopolistic competition, and oligopoly. The most important dissimilarity among each one is the amount of firms on the provide area of a market. Equally perfect competition and monopolistic competition contain a great amount of comparatively little firms advertising production. Oligopoly has a small amount of comparatively great firm with whereas, monopoly has an only firm. (Economic Glossary)
At one side of the scale we position perfectly competitive firms, is firms that have no control over the price of wares they produce as shown in figure 1.2(refer to appendix). A perfectly competitive firm has to take any price for its goods the market offers, it is a price takers. Another end of the scale of market structure is the monopolies. A monopoly is a single firm that produces the whole supply of a particular good and gives the authority to put market prices before merely respond to them. All firms with such control are price setters. In the meantime the boundaries of monopoly (no competition) and perfect competition lies in different form of imperfect competition, including duopoly, only two firms supply a particular product, oligopoly, a few huge firms supply the most or entire of a particular product and finally the monopolistic competition, numerous firms supply effectively the same product, but each one enjoys considerable brand loyalty. (Schiller, 2009)
In the telecommunication sector DiGi is a top mobile communications company given that an inclusive choice of reasonable, suitable and simple to use wireless services to make things much easier and develop the lives of its consumers. They build value for their customers through selecting the most suitable critical edge technology so that they profit from goods and services that give them option, ease and manage. (Jobstreet.com)
DiGi’s financial performance in 2009, even though a hard working environment, Group profits rise by 2% to RM4.9 billion and our subscriber base grew by 8% compared to the earlier year. The small turn down in EBITDA margin to 43.3% for the year was an outcome of improved transfer and network working costs as well as transportable internet expansion costs and advanced allowance for doubtful debts due to the economy. Their operational cash flow of RM1.4 billion achieved in 2009 was above the RM1.2 billion we guided for the year. All the way through 2009, they continuously invest in their network. Total capex for the year was RM718 million. Of this, RM300 million- RM400 million was invested in increasing their mobile internet footprint and the balance was focused on ability and value enhancements of their 2G network, as well as service improvement. In 2009, they were awarded the Gold Award for Best In-house Customer call centre by the Contact Centre Association of Malaysia (CCAM). (DiGi Annual Report, 2009)
In 2010, they ongoing on an expedition to update our communications to develop the value of service and drive rate effectiveness. They invested RM720 million in capital expenses, of where a significant part is allocated for increasing their mobile broadband and mobile internet footprint. They also improved the ability and value of their 2G network to provide our rising amount of consumers. DiGi is benchmarked next to top service business organization considered through the Forrester Index to make sure their constant development in consumer skill.
They launch a quantity of inventive promotion that set them distant in the competitive voice market in 2010. In the Prepaid sector, they were pleased that our DiGi Easy Prepaid proposition gained strong traction. All in all, our prepaid consumer support rise 13.0% year on year to 7.3 million while total income greater than before by 5.5% in the similar stage. (DiGi Annual Report, 2010)
There are few characteristics of oligopoly in the telecommunication sector.
There are three barriers to entry are economies of scale, ownership of a key input, and government-imposed barriers. The most important barrier to entry is economies of scale. The greater the market of scale, the fewer the quantity of firms that will be in the industry. If production of a good requires a particular input, then control of that input can be a barrier to entry. Firms sometimes attempt to have the government impress barriers to entry. The government also impresses barriers to entering several businesses by commanding tax and quotas on overseas competition. (R. Glenn Hubbard, 2008)
Non-Audited financial statement for the second quarter of 2011, whole net operating profits improved with 9.95%, since MYR 1,335,096 thousands to MYR 1,467,998 thousands. Working effect declined from MYR 385,717 thousands to MYR 348,092 thousands which revenue75% transform. Results of the period decreased -15.12% getting MYR 236,318 thousands at the end of the period aligned with MYR 278,408 thousands last year. Return on equity (Net income/Total equity) went from 20.08% to 18.97%, the Return On Asset (Net income / Total Asset) went as of 5.71% to 4.79% and the Net Profit Margin (Net Income/Net Sales) went from 20.85% to 16.10% when evaluate to the same period of last year. The Debt to Equity Ratio (Total Liabilities/Equity) was 295.83% compared to 251.90% of last year. Finally, the Current Ratio (Current Assets/Current Liabilities) went from 0.57 to 0.50 when evaluate to the previous year. (EMIS)
Due to surrounded reasonableness and various consumption, customers find it hard to make head-to head cost-benefits comparisons and thus build the products appear to be to some extent non-homogenous a not completely substitutable for one another. These firms are also opposing and differentiating all the way through demand stimulus (shifting ‘the demand curve’) by organizing SMS contests, sponsoring shows like “Malaysian Idol” which support SMS voting, etc. where the SMS charges are priced much advanced than usual SMS charges in order to drive higher non-voice revenue and productivity as illustrated in figure by Maxis, Celcom and DiGi’s 2010 announcements below. (http://www.slideshare.net/amiwaleed99/maxis-economonics-assignment)
TASK TWO An economic cycle is also known as a trade cycle or a business cycle which refers to the usual fluctuations in a market as a total. As Keynes describe, an economic phase is collected of cycle of excellent deal with increasing prices and high employment percentages, followed by periods of terrible trade with diminishing prices and high unemployment proportion. (Vengedasalam, 2007) Business cycle is discontinuous rises and declines in stage of trade and industry. A downturn is a stage of decline in whole production, profits and employment. This recession, which lasts 6 months or further, is marked by the well-known reduction of production activity in numerous sectors of the economy. A recession is more often than not followed by a recovery and development, a period in which real GDP, income, and employment grow as shown in figure 1.1(refer to appendix). (Campbell R., 2010)
When we talk about increasing or constricting, we envision changes in the objective measure of goods and services produced. But the objective quantity of production is almost impractical to measure. So we measure the volume of production by its market price, not by its corporeal volume. Because prices differ from one year to another, GDP yardsticks must be adjusted intended for inflation. Assume that from one year to the next all prices doubled. So unadjusted quantify of nominal GDP would give us a false analysis, we may think production was speeding forward when in actual fact it was positioned still. (Schiller, 2009)
In outlook toward the Malaysian economy, these are the impact of the business cycle for the past three years 2009, 2010, 2011 and the consequences faced by the government. In the year 2009, Bank Negara Malaysia has maintained a preventative advance to monetary policy. Previously in 2008, price increases was ascending because of the quick and considerable raise in provisions and power prices. The OPR, though, was left unaffected. The measurement of the Bank was that the food and energy price increases were hugely supply determined. Increasing interest rates beneath these circumstances would have a partial collision in containing inflation. This was the major deliberation within the assessment to keep up interest rates even though assertions that the Bank should have strictest monetary policy.
Whereas household demand circumstances be fairly sound, the rigorous subside in exports, and the dejected economic viewpoint for quite a few of Malaysia’s main trade associates destined that major strategy maintain would be required to avoid the economy from inflowing a deep and extended downturn. With inflation decelerating, Bank Negara Malaysia frontloaded the interest rate cuts to reduce the market from a fast declining international economy. Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) its concentrated by the Bank by a total of 150 basis points beginning from November 2008 to February 2009 to 2% as shown in chart 1.1(refer to appendix).
During a dilemma position, interest rate deduct with themselves are not satisfactory. Some corresponding procedures were also brought in to achieve particular sectors of the financial system. Therefore, as well as reducing rates of interest, the Bank besides introduced a amount of under attack procedures toward make sure sustained contact to financing, provisional expansion of security net, protection the cost of prosperity and actual profits of depositors and lessening extremely defenseless borrowers commencing the complete collision of the calamity. The decline in rate of borrowing in addition to procedures undertaken to make sure undisrupted credit flows to the economy were doing well in supporting financing action. Even though financing development measured in the beginning element of the year, credit flows had sustained although existing downturn circumstances in the household with exterior part of the economy. (Annual Report, 2009)
Chart 1.2(refer to appendix)
By the start year 2010, monetary indicators are signaling to facilitate the international downturn was retreating. International development was being lead through a recover within industrialized also an expansion in the stock cycle. Symbols of development are apparent from trade sales, customer self-assurance, and the accommodation markets. Global trade was as well starting to rise up. The amend in point of view was mirrored by the considerable growing reconsideration toward 2010 international development estimate by the IMF during January 2010 keep posted of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) as shown in chart 1.3(refer to appendix).
In the meantime, price rises was predicted to ascend progressively but stay low all the way through the year. Procedures of interior rise and demand indicators recommended the possible materialization of demand through inflation later in the year, aligned with the upturn in require circumstances. Demand linked pressures on inflation, though, be predicted toward stay moderately self-effacing as shown in chart 1.3 and 1.4(refer to appendix).
The work of financial implements becomes more diversify in 2010. Even though uncollateralized borrowings remain the major implement used (for 62.7% of incomparable economic policy implements), there be a substantial raise to securities base fiscal procedure instruments (2010: 37.3%, 2009: 20.2%). Bank Negara Malaysia Monetary Notes (BNMN for usual and BNMN-i for Islamic money markets) be ever more use in 2010 when there have be tough appeal for these securities by shareholder, mostly non-resident shareholder. These new organization would demand to a huge base of shareholder set the tighter conformity through Shariah supplies of diverse jurisdictions. In order by the visualization of Malaysia being an Islamic Financial Centre, the Bank will maintain toward grow original and supple Islamic monetary implement that are broadly suitable between international investors.(Annual Report, 2010)
In the year 2011, financial display recommended that the upturn of the international economy was ongoing, even though the development presentation varies obviously across area. GDP development was predicted to stay vigorous at 5-6% as shown in chart 1.5(refer to appendix) for 2011. Inflation was estimated to rise in 2011 compared to 2010. Supply factors would be the most important source of inflation throughout the year. In December 2010 the amendments to the manage value of fuel goods would certainly increase heading price rises. Increasing worldwide force and provisions prices were likely to use rising force on firms’ expenses of production. Figures released in February in chart 1.5(refer to appendix) showed GDP development was constant at 4.8% in the fourth sector of 2010. Highly developed indicator and dealings of customer response keen to a sustained optimistic outlook designed for personal use. Comment beginning the Bank’s industrial actions recommended continuous development of service and income, which would be more sustain by the firm service value in the opening partially of the year.
All the way through the year, the household money market and liquidity in the stock scheme be affecting by growth in the worldwide economic markets and unpredictable collection course. In general circumstances in the household money market, on the other hand, remained flexible to the worldwide financial confusion. Interbank markets sustained to function below a excess liquidity situation, among the entire contributor left behind as net lenders all through the year. As at end-2010 total excess liquidity increase starting from RM299.2 billion to as high as RM397.5 billion at June 2011 as shown chart 1.6(refer to appendix), before past it in the second half of the year. Quite a few raise schemes were apply in 2011 to raise the prepared effectiveness of monetary procedure and improve the diversity of capital market implement. The Range Maturity Auction (RMA) was completely operational throughout the year and develop into part of normal monetary process. (Annual Report, 2011)
TASK THREE The telecommunications industry in Malaysia and the district is predicted to confront test in 2011 as of a growing voice market, fibre roll-out, and original technologies together with LTE as well as greater than ever consumer outlook. These are the few strategies used by these two companies Maxis and DiGi.
The macro-economic environment in 2010 improves over 2009, a year during which performance of global financial markets exaggerated Asian economies. In opposition to the negative 1.7% recorded formerly, the Malaysian economy grew powerfully in 2010, registering a growth rate of 7.2%. Growth was fuelled by high confidential expenditure and continuous public division spending. On the other hand, the Malaysian telecommunications industry concerned many new entrants in the year beneath assessment, together with in the broadband sector. This, coupled with powerful competition in the midst of accessible players, reflected the gradually more challenging working environment. Customers continued to demonstrate a tough desire for mobile phone internet services and substance in addition to Smartphone and tablets. The varying scene has proposition for their company form with improved demands on margins.
Their strategy for 2011 is divided into three parts, to get the most out of their voice company, to protected statistics admission management and access, and to distribute goods and services ahead of telecommunication sector. In accomplish this plan; we stay aggravated to deliver investor cost throughout presentation improvement, savings to protect continuous outlook profits flow and cautious economic organization. (Maxis Annual Report, 2009) (Maxis Annual Report, 2010)
DiGi and the telecommunications sector in Malaysia in 2011 will certainly be an exciting year. Their industry will have a main part to play in building a first-class ICT infrastructure that will not only stimulate this development story but also build a more connected Malaysia in the course of a mature mobile internet and mobile broadband ecosystem. DiGi will maintain to aggressively attend to the growing demand for excellence statistics services in Malaysia. They continue dedicated to advance scheduled growing their complex marks that will also supply for superior rate capability, consistency and value of service. The group target to keep their tough development energy this year. They are aiming to obtain a reasonable distribute of the development in the mobile phone internet and portable broadband sector and further market sector. Being operationally capable will stay behind a main priority. (DiGi Annual Report, 2010)
There are few responsibilities that DiGi wanted to do; control and expand existing accounts, accomplish effective account treatment during preparation of sales calls, handling enquiries from customers, gather round competitor’s information from consumers and providing market feedback, in charge for uncovering opportunities, advertising benefits of the full services of DiGi business and advertising adjacent to the competition, to do outbound calls from the given list/record of existing and potential customers, produce demand for DiGi business and direct in the selling process, and organize, price, negotiate and reference sales solutions as well as control daily forecast and opportunities.