Romer’s initial proposition is that the simple IS-LM model as an economic instrument is subject to limitations, the first being that it cannot be used to analyse inflation. Romer acknowledges that this model was better suited to the 1950’s and 60’s where inflation was of little concern, however as inflation became increasingly significant, extensions to the model were needed that eventually led to the incorporation of aggregate supply. However, there is a great deal of controversy that surrounds the IS-LM-AS model. The first being that the price level does not adjust immediately and completely to disturbances, where Romer argues the lack of perfect nominal adjustment causes monetary changes to affect real output in the short run. The second controversial decision is the disregard to microeconomic principles such as demands for consumption, investment, money, and the nature of price adjustment, that are postulated and defended on the basis of intuitive arguments rather than derived from analyses of households’ and firms’ objectives and constraints.
Romer presents three choices that make the IS-LM-AS model inappropriate. (1) Different interest rates are pertinent to different parts of the model. The real interest rate is relevant to the demand for goods and thus to the IS curve, while the nominal rate is relevant to the demand for money and thus to the LM curve. (2) Aggregate demand and aggregate supply curves are relationships between output and the price level, while what we typically interested in understanding is the behaviour of output and inflation. E.g. negative shocks to aggregate demand in post war US have led to falls in inflation, not to the declines in the price level. (3) The model assumes the central bank sets a fixed money supply. However most central banks pay little attention to the money supply in making policy.
Romer primarily advocates the use of the IS-MP-IA model as a replacement for the IS-LM model. Keynesian Macroeconomics without the LM curve suggests several advantages of the alternative model. (1) The central bank follows a real interest rate rule; that is, it acts to make the real interest rate behave in a certain way as a function of macroeconomic variables such as inflation and output. The appropriateness of this assumption lies in the way central banks behave. Central banks in almost all industrialised countries focus on interest rate on loans between banks in their short-run policy-making. And therefore, the assumption that the central bank follows an interest rate rule that is more realistic than the assumption that it targets the money supply. (2) The new approach describes monetary policy in terms of the real interest rate. As looking beyond short run, real interest rate rule is more realistic than a nominal rate rule and it is important to the model’s simplicity and coherence. (3) A real interest rate rule is simpler than the LM curve. When inflation is high, its concern about inflation predominates, and so it chooses a high real rate to contract output and dampen inflation. When inflation is low, it is no longer as concerned about inflation, and so it chooses a lower real rate to increase output. (4) In the new approach, the aggregate demand curve relates inflation and output. Inflation determines the central bank’s choice of the real rate, and the IS curve then determines output. (5) In the simple version of the model, there is no simultaneity. That is inflation is inherited from the economy’s past. Inflation determines the real interest rate, and the real rate determines output. (6) The model’s dynamics are straightforward and reasonable. For example a departure of output from normal causes inflation to change, which causes the central bank to change the real interest rate, which moves output back toward normal.
The Money Market
In the MP model, the concept of money is high-powered money, that is being manipulated to make interest rates behave in the way it desires. (7) With the new approach, the correct concept of money to consider is unambiguous. (8) One can fully incorporate endogenous changes in expected inflation into the analysis of the aggregate demand side of the model. Changes in expected inflation affect how the central bank must adjust the money stock to follow its real interest rate rule, but have no further effects on aggregate demand.
The Open Economy
(9) The same framework can be used to analyse a closed economy, floating exchange rates, and fixed exchange rates. (10) With the new approach, one can show how a fixed exchange rate constrains monetary policy without adopting the unrealistic view that it completely determines it. (11) The approach shows the asymmetry in a fixed exchange rate system: the bank is free to pursue policies that create reserve gains, but beyond some point cannot pursue policies that create reserve losses
Other alternative models
Upward-sloping MP Curve
Central banks can also make the real rate depend on output. Cutting the real rate when output falls and raising it when output rises directly dampens output fluctuations. High output also tends to increase inflation and low output to decrease it, this policy also dampens inflation fluctuations.
An expectations-Augmented Aggregate supply curve
In this alternative, the model replaces the assumption that inflation adjusts gradually with the more standard assumption of an expectations-augmented aggregate supply curve.
A Money Market Equilibrium Curve
A more general approach is raised that could show many sets of assumptions imply an upward-sloping curve in output-real interest rate space where the money market is in equilibrium for a given inflation rate. However does not deliver clear-cut answers of what types of developments shift the money market equilibrium curve.
Ultimately, the IS-LM model forms of a pivotal part of macroeconomic education, and it must be used in conjunction with prudence in order to facilitate accurate understanding of economic activity. While the impact of Romer’s composition on changing contemporary teaching model inevitably suffers due to the trade-off between simplicity and accuracy, it is a seminal piece in that it continues to remain a fundamental piece of macroeconomic instruction for students, despite perhaps presenting a flawed means as to how to go about it.
The Jamaican Business Cycle Economics Essay
According to investopedia.com macroeconomics is focused on the movement and trends in the economy as a whole; this is accomplished by examining changes in unemployment, gross domestic product (GDP), rate of growth, national income and so on. However all of these phenomena are affected by international influences, government policies and other economic variables.
The Jamaican Business Cycle “Studies of the Jamaican business cycle include work done by Murray (2007) who determined the main drivers of the Jamaican Business cycle. Murray (2007) developed a structural vector autoregressive model of the Jamaican Economy. The purpose of the model was to identify and disaggregate the main factors that drive the Jamaican business cycle. The model also provided an additional mechanism for the examination of the transmission of monetary policy to effect changes to prices in Jamaica. The paper finds that domestic factors and international variables were the main drivers of the Jamaican business cycle. However, the international variables were found to be relatively less important than the other factors. The author also found that fiscal policy has a more direct impact on the business cycle than monetary policy conducted through interest rates.
Government Policies Governments may use various policy instruments such as taxes and regulations to attain a macroeconomic objective, through their influence on consumer and producer spending and production cost. In Jamaica there are two main government policies which are being practiced, the monetary policy and the fiscal policy.
Monetary Policy This is implemented by the government through the central bank to control inflation and other factors by influencing the supply of money in the economy BOJ, (2011).
GDP Growth Real GDP – first full year of positive growth but downside risks are ahead .Estimates from the planning institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) have shown that economic recovery continued throughout 2011, with fourth quarter growth amounting to 1.7%. This brings annual growth to 1.5%, the first full year of growth realized since calendar year 2007. The goods producing sector was the primary driver behind the increase with estimated full year growth of 4.9%.
However, the service sector could only manage a meager 0.2% advance relative to 2010.Nonetheless, with total public debt at J$1.63 trillion or 131% of GDP, Jamaica is one of the most indebted countries in the world. This situation is further exacerbated with tax revenue growth for fiscal year 2011/12 expected to be 3.9%, the lowest level in over 20 years. Such low tax revenue growth adds pressure to central government to stimulate the economy through spending. In light of this, sustained robust economic growth is what the country requires to improve the fiscal health and reduce the debt burden.
How the international economy affects the national economy?
Jamaica does not exist in a vacuum by itself; in fact the Jamaican economy is very dependent on international trade for its survival. The tourism sector is dependent on tourists from overseas, there are many non- profit organizations that depend on the European Union for financial support and the list goes on. More noteworthy is the relationship Jamaica has with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). There are also many families in Jamaica who depend on remittances from relatives in America, Canada, England, etc. which they use to support themselves and which also adds to GDP growth in Jamaica.
It has long been said that if America sneezes proverbially, Jamaica will catch a cold. The thriving first class nation of the United States of America has been an economic hub of Jamaicans for many years and continues to be such. However this was interrupted in 2007, when America was going through a recession, this caused economic activity with that country to slow down significantly and this had a ripple effect on the Jamaican economy, which saw Jamaica reeling from the effect of a recession in the economy from 2008- 2011. Later the government of Jamaica had to re-establish a relationship with the IMF in order to receive low interest loans in order to assist with balance of payments by the government and stability of the local currency.
The forecasted national economic outlook for the period 2013 – 2015
Tax Budget 2012-2013 Dr. the Honorable Peter Phillips, Minister of Finance and Planning, gave this year’s budget presentation in the context of the global economy, where growth is projected to be approximately 3.2% for 2012. Following three consecutive years of negative growth, real GDP grew in Jamaica by 1.3% in 2011/2012.
The economic concerns of high unemployment (12.8%), public sector deficit (7.3% of GDP), and the ratio of the debt to GDP (128% of GDP) remains.
Jamaica has not yet, like much of the world, recovered from the global recession. Some economists’ project that real GDP is not projected to reach 2007 levels until sometime in 2013, while real per capita GDP won’t fully recover until 2014. Further, full recovery in GDP is not projected to occur until 2017, almost 10 years after the recession commenced.
Given that debt and wages account for 78% of public expenditures, the government’s strategy is to reduce wage expenditures through public sector pension reform and natural attrition. In closing, we recognize the limited “degrees of freedom” the Ministry of finance and Planning had to craft this budget. The budget is expected to boost the primary surplus of the central government to around 6 percent of GDP.
Ability to Service Debt Jamaica is given a B rating by three international rating agencies as at 2012. These rating agencies are Moody’s, S